The Independent Thinking

The Independent Thinking

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The Independent Thinking
The Independent Thinking
The real edge against markets and inflation.
The Insights

The real edge against markets and inflation.

What’s the difference between thinking for yourself and following the crowd? A study of markets and crowd behavior that may prevent human misconceptions that can harm both your present and your future

Marcelo Marini's avatar
Marcelo Marini
Aug 22, 2025
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The Independent Thinking
The Independent Thinking
The real edge against markets and inflation.
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Dear reader,

Palantir rose 144% in a year, only to fall around 17% in the last days.

black laptop computer turned on displaying blue screen
We ask the Independent Thinker: what does Palantir do? Photo by Mohammad Rahmani on Unsplash

However, Palantir’s meteoric rise has been followed by a brutal reversal. Over the past six trading sessions, Palantir shares plunged more than 17%, wiping out $73 billion in market capitalization and marking the largest drop since April. — Fortune.

They proved the point of market (what is the market???) irrationality in just a few weeks. It surged, then followed with a brutal reversal. Can the mystical “market” behave in the same way when AI slows down? Will it eventually slow down? If it’s not a trend, it may never happen again… Will it happen again? We don’t know.

…In recent days, Palantir has also been the worst performer in the S&P 500, illustrating an extreme swing from hero to villain in the market. — Fortune.

If it rains, we’d better have an umbrella. If it rains too much, we take our coat. If it becomes a non-stop storm, we’d better read a book… and create more optionality, protect our present and future by thinking wisely. We can’t fight the law’s of nature.

Continue to call it the market, and people may continue to find it difficult to reason.

Take the case of Palantir: you can listen to opinions, look at prices—its multiples and indicators—that may confuse the reader, maybe for a reason, which we are trying to understand here… They can follow what other people say, read the news… the crowd media. Or you can simply read the company. How business and finances really work…Learn to read business... What does the company do? What is its business? How does it earn money? It’s a factual question.

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