It Pays to Think Independently
The Independent Thinking Newsletter examines business and finance with an emphasis on structure, incentives, and decision-making. Written by businessman, financier, and author Marcelo Marini, it analyzes recurring errors that impair capital, value creation, operations, financial performance, and long-term results—while identifying opportunities often overlooked. The objective is clear: reduce avoidable mistakes, preserve capital, maximize long-term value creation, and strengthen independent thinking.
Each week, the newsletter publishes a letter focused on business, finance, and independent thinking. A monthly strategic intelligence edition provides deeper analysis. Subscribers also have access to a private archive of resources and tools built over more than ten years.
The publication does not provide investment advisory, portfolio management, or security recommendations. Its focus is on understanding how businesses and the financial world works, how capital is misallocated, and how flawed assumptions compound into structural risks that may shape current events and affect both present and future outcomes.
Read by business owners, entrepreneurs, and investors globally, its audience includes senior executives, founders, bankers, conglomerate owners, hedge fund professionals, family offices, high-net-worth individuals, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals across industries.
Avoiding Strategic Errors & Mistakes.
This is the only place where Marcelo Marini shares his direct, reflections on business, finance, and independent thinking. A single strategic error can compromise generations of wealth. When you identify and avoid those errors before they happen you protect enough capital, time and decision making flaws.
About the Author
Marcelo Marini is a businessman, financier, and author with an MBA in Corporate Finance. He brings a strong record of strategic and operational execution, deep sector knowledge, and international experience across the industries in which he operates.
He writes on independent thinking, business, and finance for readers in more than 15 countries.
For over a decade, his weekly writings have reached readers across more than 15 countries. This is the only place where his work is published.
Predictions of Human Misconceptions, Problems, and Opportunities
Over the past ten years, this newsletter has presented strategic perspectives that often anticipated trends in business, finance, behavior, and markets.
Here, you will find problems and opportunities many business owners and investors have yet to recognize—common but costly errors that erode capital, weaken businesses, and compromise decision-making.
As a longtime reader and friend of this newsletter often says:
“Mr. Marini is always 10–15 years ahead.”
Can we avoid the traps that waste time, capital, and decision-making?
Many “predictions of human misconceptions” are still unfolding. We are not here to tell you what to do, but to help you question things—and think independently.
Reader Voices
“Notorious knowledge in the field, inspiring, awesome.” — Executive
“Rational and surgical.” — Entrepreneur
“For over ten years, Marcelo has been my main reference in matters related to business and finance.” — Entrepreneur
“Disciple of W. Buffett, B. Graham & M. Marini (not necessarily in this order).” — Entrepreneur, Investor
“A little weekend reading: Marcelo Marini wrote about the difference between investors thinking for themselves versus just blindly following the crowd” — The Berkshire Beat
Additional Learning
Subscribers may also choose to access the platform, which provides access to membership plans, courses, frameworks, books, materials, and additional resources.
The Ciclos Terminal
Subscribers who find value in Marcelo’s strategic thinking may eventually be a fit for the Ciclos Terminal, a Powerful real-time analytics and insights, powered by cutting-edge technology and oriented toward long-term value creation, enabling you to monitor your operations and gain new context and insights to stay ahead, wherever you are.
The Ciclos Terminal transforms how owners, investors, executives, and family groups manage their assets by providing a unified view of operational performance, financial structure, governance, and strategic decisions.
Editorial Notes
Our intention is not to write conventional articles. Instead, we focus on unconventional, timeless, relevant ideas intended to remain valuable long after these pieces are written. Readers are encouraged to revisit, study, discuss, and explore the deeper meaning behind them.
If an article appears in another language, we kindly ask readers to use their browser’s “Translate” function. This is preferable to relying on third-party interpretations and, in our view, better than skipping the reading altogether. Some articles from 2015–2020 are being remounted from the original Diaries.
If you are willing to explore the archives, you may experience the benefit of relying less on the opinions of others—which, depending on your level of self-confidence, can be a meaningful advantage. Since Marcelo Marini’s original Diary moved to Substack, The Independent Thinking is now the only place where he shares his thoughts.
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Editorial Approach
We do not offer stock tips, recommendations, investment products, investment advice, portfolio management, or model portfolios. We are not engaged in investment advisory or portfolio management services. Instead, we focus on understanding business, finance, decision-making, and living a better life through independent thinking. We are not here to tell you what to do, but to help you question assumptions—and think independently.
